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2016 Senate · FL

University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 836 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-7.666) = 1.666
  4. Absolute miss = |1.666| = 1.666

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47549, race ID 93 (538 database).