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2016 Governor · MO

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 2,559 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.14%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.570 − 51.137 = -5.567
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-5.567) = 7.567
  4. Absolute miss = |7.567| = 7.567

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47615, race ID 50 (538 database).