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2016 President · MO

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 2,559 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 50%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.13% · Republican 56.77%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 50 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.135 − 56.772 = -18.637
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-18.637) = 7.637
  4. Absolute miss = |7.637| = 7.637

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47615, race ID 626 (538 database).