Skip to content

2016 President · IA

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 791 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 41.75% · Republican 51.16%

R+9.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.753 − 51.162 = -9.409
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-9.409) = 9.410
  4. Absolute miss = |9.410| = 9.410

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47618, race ID 614 (538 database).