2016 Senate · IA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 791 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 56%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.66% · Republican 60.09%
R+24.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 56 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 35.655 − 60.090 = -24.435
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-24.435) = 6.435
- Absolute miss = |6.435| = 6.435
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47618, race ID 92 (538 database).