2016 Senate · FL
Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 49%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%
R+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 49 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-7.666) = 0.666
- Absolute miss = |0.666| = 0.666
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47646, race ID 93 (538 database).