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2016 President · OH

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-8.130) = 12.130
  4. Absolute miss = |12.130| = 12.130

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47650, race ID 637 (538 database).