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2016 President · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 43%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.367) = 2.632
  4. Absolute miss = |2.632| = 2.632

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47652, race ID 632 (538 database).