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2016 Senate · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (0.137) = -6.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.138| = 6.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47652, race ID 85 (538 database).