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2016 Senate · NV

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 875 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.10% · Republican 44.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.099 − 44.670 = 2.429
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.429) = 3.571
  4. Absolute miss = |3.571| = 3.571

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47655, race ID 63 (538 database).