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2016 Senate · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 420 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 41%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.34% · Republican 48.77%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 41 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.341 − 48.774 = -1.433
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.433) = 1.432
  4. Absolute miss = |1.432| = 1.432

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47708, race ID 86 (538 database).