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2016 President · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 656 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 39%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 44.92%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 39 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.445 − 44.925 = 1.520
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (1.520) = 8.480
  4. Absolute miss = |8.480| = 8.480

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47712, race ID 625 (538 database).