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2016 President · CA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 712 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 65.14% · Republican 26.16%

D+39.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.73% · Republican 31.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 65.14 − 26.16 = 38.98
  2. Actual margin = 61.726 − 31.617 = 30.109
  3. Signed miss = 38.98 − (30.109) = 8.871
  4. Absolute miss = |8.871| = 8.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47716, race ID 606 (538 database).