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2016 President · FL

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 804 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.51% · Republican 44.61%

D+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.51 − 44.61 = 3.90
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = 3.90 − (-1.199) = 5.099
  4. Absolute miss = |5.099| = 5.099

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47720, race ID 611 (538 database).