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2016 President · GA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 583 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.11% · Republican 47.84%

R+4.7

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.11 − 47.84 = -4.73
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -4.73 − (-5.131) = 0.401
  4. Absolute miss = |0.401| = 0.401

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47721, race ID 612 (538 database).