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2016 President · IL

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 475 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55.55% · Republican 34.57%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.83% · Republican 38.76%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.55 − 34.57 = 20.98
  2. Actual margin = 55.825 − 38.762 = 17.063
  3. Signed miss = 20.98 − (17.063) = 3.916
  4. Absolute miss = |3.916| = 3.916

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47723, race ID 616 (538 database).