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2016 President · MA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 494 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56.14% · Republican 26.81%

D+29.3

The certified result

Democrat 60.01% · Republican 32.81%

D+27.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.14 − 26.81 = 29.33
  2. Actual margin = 60.005 − 32.808 = 27.197
  3. Signed miss = 29.33 − (27.197) = 2.133
  4. Absolute miss = |2.133| = 2.133

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47731, race ID 621 (538 database).