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2016 President · NY

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 498 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 30.28%

D+21.7

The certified result

Democrat 56.72% · Republican 32.73%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.97 − 30.28 = 21.69
  2. Actual margin = 56.722 − 32.729 = 23.993
  3. Signed miss = 21.69 − (23.993) = -2.304
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.304| = 2.304

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47742, race ID 636 (538 database).