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2016 President · OH

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 508 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.85% · Republican 45.17%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.85 − 45.17 = -0.32
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = -0.32 − (-8.130) = 7.810
  4. Absolute miss = |7.810| = 7.810

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47744, race ID 637 (538 database).