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2016 President · PA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 445 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.03% · Republican 45.87%

D+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.18%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.03 − 45.87 = 2.16
  2. Actual margin = 47.465 − 48.183 = -0.718
  3. Signed miss = 2.16 − (-0.718) = 2.878
  4. Absolute miss = |2.878| = 2.878

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47747, race ID 640 (538 database).