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2016 President · VA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 697 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.11% · Republican 39.3%

D+8.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.73% · Republican 44.41%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.11 − 39.3 = 8.81
  2. Actual margin = 49.728 − 44.407 = 5.321
  3. Signed miss = 8.81 − (5.321) = 3.489
  4. Absolute miss = |3.489| = 3.489

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47752, race ID 647 (538 database).