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2016 President · WI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 42%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (-0.764) = 6.764
  4. Absolute miss = |6.764| = 6.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47758, race ID 650 (538 database).