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2016 Senate · NC

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 650 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.37% · Republican 51.06%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.366 − 51.062 = -5.696
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-5.696) = 1.696
  4. Absolute miss = |1.696| = 1.696

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47759, race ID 62 (538 database).