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2016 President · NC

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 650 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.17% · Republican 49.83%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.173 − 49.828 = -3.655
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-3.655) = 6.655
  4. Absolute miss = |6.655| = 6.655

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47759, race ID 629 (538 database).