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2016 Senate · NV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 550 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.10% · Republican 44.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.099 − 44.670 = 2.429
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (2.429) = -6.429
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.429| = 6.429

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47760, race ID 63 (538 database).