2016 House · ME-1
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 299 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 28%
D+33.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.99% · Republican 41.94%
D+16.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 28 = 33.00
- Actual margin = 57.990 − 41.940 = 16.050
- Signed miss = 33.00 − (16.050) = 16.950
- Absolute miss = |16.950| = 16.950
The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47772, race ID 5950 (538 database).