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2016 President · ME

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 670 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 37%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 44.87%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 37 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.830 − 44.870 = 2.960
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (2.960) = 8.040
  4. Absolute miss = |8.040| = 8.040

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47772, race ID 623 (538 database).