2016 President · M1
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 329 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 34%
D+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.96% · Republican 39.15%
D+14.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 34 = 20.00
- Actual margin = 53.958 − 39.151 = 14.807
- Signed miss = 20.00 − (14.807) = 5.193
- Absolute miss = |5.193| = 5.193
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47773, race ID 8715 (538 database).