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2016 Senate · NC

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 780 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.37% · Republican 51.06%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.366 − 51.062 = -5.696
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.696) = 5.696
  4. Absolute miss = |5.696| = 5.696

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47775, race ID 62 (538 database).