Skip to content

2016 Senate · CO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 997 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 41%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.97% · Republican 44.31%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.971 − 44.306 = 5.665
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.665) = -0.665
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.665| = 0.665

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47780, race ID 74 (538 database).