Skip to content

2016 President · UT

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 823 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 32%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 32 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-18.078) = 10.078
  4. Absolute miss = |10.078| = 10.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47781, race ID 646 (538 database).