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2016 President · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 683 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 49%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 49 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-5.131) = -1.869
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.869| = 1.869

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47785, race ID 612 (538 database).