2016 President · IN
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 50%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.77% · Republican 56.94%
R+19.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 50 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 37.775 − 56.940 = -19.165
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-19.165) = 8.165
- Absolute miss = |8.165| = 8.165
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47857, race ID 617 (538 database).