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2016 Senate · IN

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 42.41% · Republican 52.11%

R+9.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.413 − 52.112 = -9.699
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-9.699) = 9.700
  4. Absolute miss = |9.700| = 9.700

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47857, race ID 78 (538 database).