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2016 President · IL

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.83% · Republican 38.76%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.825 − 38.762 = 17.063
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (17.063) = -5.064
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.064| = 5.064

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47878, race ID 616 (538 database).