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2016 Senate · IL

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53.7% · Republican 36.2%

D+17.5

The certified result

Democrat 54.86% · Republican 39.78%

D+15.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.7 − 36.2 = 17.50
  2. Actual margin = 54.862 − 39.780 = 15.082
  3. Signed miss = 17.50 − (15.082) = 2.419
  4. Absolute miss = |2.419| = 2.419

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47878, race ID 84 (538 database).