Skip to content

2016 President · ME

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 44.87%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.830 − 44.870 = 2.960
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.960) = 1.040
  4. Absolute miss = |1.040| = 1.040

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47879, race ID 623 (538 database).