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2016 President · AK

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 46%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.55% · Republican 51.28%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 46 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.551 − 51.282 = -14.731
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-14.731) = 6.731
  4. Absolute miss = |6.731| = 6.731

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47884, race ID 602 (538 database).