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2016 President · CO

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,532 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 39%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 39 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.906) = -0.906
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.906| = 0.906

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47888, race ID 607 (538 database).