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2016 President · CT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 554 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 39%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.57% · Republican 40.93%

D+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.566 − 40.927 = 13.639
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (13.639) = -1.639
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.639| = 1.639

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47889, race ID 608 (538 database).