Skip to content

2016 President · DC

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 332 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 88% · Republican 4%

D+84.0

The certified result

Democrat 90.86% · Republican 4.09%

D+86.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 88 − 4 = 84.00
  2. Actual margin = 90.864 − 4.087 = 86.777
  3. Signed miss = 84.00 − (86.777) = -2.776
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.776| = 2.776

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47890, race ID 609 (538 database).