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2016 Senate · GA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 2,665 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 50%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.03% · Republican 54.78%

R+13.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 50 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.033 − 54.784 = -13.751
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-13.751) = 4.751
  4. Absolute miss = |4.751| = 4.751

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47893, race ID 88 (538 database).