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2016 Senate · HI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 467 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 69% · Republican 27%

D+42.0

The certified result

Democrat 73.60% · Republican 22.24%

D+51.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 69 − 27 = 42.00
  2. Actual margin = 73.603 − 22.242 = 51.361
  3. Signed miss = 42.00 − (51.361) = -9.361
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.361| = 9.361

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47894, race ID 64 (538 database).