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2016 Senate · IN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 674 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.41% · Republican 52.11%

R+9.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.413 − 52.112 = -9.699
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-9.699) = 5.700
  4. Absolute miss = |5.700| = 5.700

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47897, race ID 78 (538 database).