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2016 President · KY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 424 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 58%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.68% · Republican 62.52%

R+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 58 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.682 − 62.520 = -29.838
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-29.838) = 2.837
  4. Absolute miss = |2.837| = 2.837

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47900, race ID 619 (538 database).