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2016 President · MA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 796 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 29%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.01% · Republican 32.81%

D+27.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 29 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.005 − 32.808 = 27.197
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (27.197) = 1.803
  4. Absolute miss = |1.803| = 1.803

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47904, race ID 621 (538 database).