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2016 President · MN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 773 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 37%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 44.92%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 37 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.445 − 44.925 = 1.520
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (1.520) = 7.480
  4. Absolute miss = |7.480| = 7.480

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47906, race ID 625 (538 database).