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2016 President · MS

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 648 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 48%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.12% · Republican 57.94%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 48 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.115 − 57.941 = -17.826
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-17.826) = 10.826
  4. Absolute miss = |10.826| = 10.826

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47907, race ID 627 (538 database).