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2016 Governor · MO

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 671 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 44%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.14%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 44 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.570 − 51.137 = -5.567
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (-5.567) = 15.567
  4. Absolute miss = |15.567| = 15.567

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47908, race ID 50 (538 database).