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2016 President · MO

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 671 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 46%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.13% · Republican 56.77%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 46 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.135 − 56.772 = -18.637
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-18.637) = 11.637
  4. Absolute miss = |11.637| = 11.637

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47908, race ID 626 (538 database).